Citizen science photographs indicate different timing and location use of migrating adult and juvenile Whimbrels
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract It is imperative to identify factors that influence population trends for declining species, but demographic parameters can be especially challenging to quantify for birds, such as Whimbrels (Numenius phaeopus), that breed in locations that are logistically difficult to access. At least two disjunct Whimbrel populations breed in remote and difficult to access northern latitudes but migrate through the heavily populated North American Atlantic Coast during autumn migration. Here, we capitalize on the Whimbrel migrations through the more populated coastal areas to age Whimbrels in photographs uploaded to the citizen science website, eBird, to identify the timing and location of juvenile Whimbrels staging for trans-Atlantic migratory flights. Mean photograph dates for adult migration were synchronous with reported dates for the Mackenzie Delta population that breeds along the northern coast of Northwest Territories, Canada, and stages in Atlantic Canada and for the Hudson Bay population that stages along the South Atlantic USA coast. However, the mean dates of juvenile photographs were 29–41 days later than adult dates, depending on the region. Space use by juveniles along the coast also differed from that reported for adults. Adults primarily depend on Atlantic Canada and the South Atlantic USA coast during fall migration. The percentage of juveniles was greater outside these two primary staging locations. Region-specific juvenile photograph dates suggest that juveniles may drift farther south than the majority of adults from their respective populations. The percentage of juvenile photos collected better predicted the percentage of adult photos 3 years later than 1 and 2 years later which is consistent with Whimbrel’s delayed reproductive strategy and provides validation for using photographs to obtain age ratios. As photograph uploads become more commonplace, this and similar analyses may be used to obtain information that would normally be logistically difficult with traditional field methods.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".