A history of net debt as a reflection of Canadian federal government fiscal management
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Canada entered the COVID‐19 pandemic with a strong fiscal position, which gave it room to mitigate its economic impacts. Of interest in this paper is the history of Canada's financial position in terms of net debt as reported in the Government of Canada's annual financial statements. Net debt is a measure of fiscal sustainability that has been reported in the Government of Canada's public accounts since the country's earliest days. It created (and continues to create) a particular visibility of the “effectiveness” of the federal government's financial management and of the country's financial position at a particular point in time but also impacts future political policy. Although there were periods of sharp increases in the federal net debt over the country's history, the federal government was always able to regain control, and this has resulted in the reasonable level of net debt the country has today. This study shows how this net debt changed, was sustained over time, and was influenced by the political and economic context in which it was situated. We find evidence of its use for supporting government accountability to the population but also as an accounting measure employed by the government to influence public opinion and thereby gain support for government policy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.018 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.009 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.011 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".