Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Seasonal Sea Ice of Arctic Bay, Nunavut
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The temporal and spatial variation in seasonal sea ice in Arctic Bay, Nunavut, are examined using time series and spatial clustering analyses. For the period of 1971 to 2018, a time series of sea ice break-up, and freeze-up, dates and ice-free season length at nine grid points are generated from sea ice charts derived from satellites and other data. These data are analysed temporally and spatially. The temporal analyses indicate an unambiguous response to a warming climate with statistically significant earlier break-up dates, later freeze-up dates, and longer ice-free seasons with clear statistically significant linkages to local air temperature. The rate of change in freeze-up dates and ice-free season length was particularly strong in the early 2000s and less in the 2010s. Spatial clustering analysis indicated a roughly linear pathway of south to north behaviour, following the contours of the bay with the exception of modified behaviour for landfast sea ice near the hamlet of Arctic Bay. The temporal analysis confirms and expands upon an earlier time series analysis of local seasonal sea ice. The spatial analysis indicates that while the ice-free season is increasing, it does not provide clear evidence that there has been a regime change in the seasonal characteristics of how sea ice forms and melts each year.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".