Is cancer stage data missing completely at random? A report from a large population-based cohort of non-small cell lung cancer
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduction: Population-based datasets are often used to estimate changes in utilization or outcomes of novel therapies. Inclusion or exclusion of unstaged patients may impact on interpretation of these studies. Methods: A large population-based dataset in Ontario, Canada of non-small cell lung cancer patients was examined to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of unstaged patients compared to staged patients. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to evaluate differences in patient-level characteristics between groups. Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival and log-rank statistics were utilized. Results: In our Ontario cohort of 51,152 patients with NSCLC, 11.2% (n=5,707) were unstaged, and there was evidence that stage data was not missing completely at random. Those without assigned stage were more likely than staged patients to be older (RR [95%CI]), (70-79 vs. 20-59: 1.51 [1.38-1.66]; 80+ vs. 20-59: 2.87 [2.62-3.15]), have a higher comorbidity index (Score 1-2 vs 0: 1.19 [1.12-1.27]; 3 vs. 0: 1.49 [1.38-1.60]), and have a lower socioeconomic class (4 vs. 1 (lowest): 0.91 [0.84-0.98]; 5 vs. 1 (lowest): 0.89 [0.83-0.97]). Overall survival of unstaged patients suggested a mixture of early and advanced stage, but with a large proportion that are probably stage IV patients with more rapid death than those with reported stage IV disease. Conclusion: In this case study, evaluation of stage-specific health care utilization and outcomes for staged patients with stage IV disease at the population level may have a bias as a distinct subset of stage IV patients with rapid death are likely among those without a documented stage in administrative data.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.024 | 0.094 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".