Transformation of coral communities subjected to an unprecedented heatwave is modulated by local disturbance
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Corals are imminently threatened by climate change-amplified marine heatwaves. However, how to conserve coral reefs remains unclear, since those without local anthropogenic disturbances often seem equally or more susceptible to thermal stress as impacted ones. We disentangle this apparent paradox, revealing that the relationship between reef disturbance and heatwave impacts depends upon the scale of biological organization. We show that a tropical heatwave of globally unprecedented duration (~1 year) culminated in an 89% loss of hard coral cover. At the community level, losses depended on pre-heatwave community structure, with undisturbed sites, which were dominated by competitive corals, undergoing the greatest losses. In contrast, at the species level, survivorship of individual corals typically declined as local disturbance intensified. Our study reveals both that prolonged heatwaves projected under climate change will still have winners and losers and that local disturbance can impair survival of coral species even under such extreme conditions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".