Phytoplankton life strategies, phenological shifts and climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean from 1850 to 2100
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Significant phenological shifts induced by climate change are projected within the phytoplankton community. However, projections from current Earth System Models (ESMs) understandably rely on simplified community responses that do not consider evolutionary strategies manifested as various phenotypes and trait groups. Here, we use a species-based modelling approach, combined with large-scale plankton observations, to investigate past, contemporary and future phenological shifts in diatoms (grouped by their morphological traits) and dinoflagellates in three key areas of the North Atlantic Ocean (North Sea, North-East Atlantic and Labrador Sea) from 1850 to 2100. Our study reveals that the three phytoplanktonic groups exhibit coherent and different shifts in phenology and abundance throughout the North Atlantic Ocean. The seasonal duration of large flattened (i.e. oblate) diatoms is predicted to shrink and their abundance to decline, whereas the phenology of slow-sinking elongated (i.e. prolate) diatoms and of dinoflagellates is expected to expand and their abundance to rise, which may alter carbon export in this important sink region. The increase in prolates and dinoflagellates, two groups currently not considered in ESMs, may alleviate the negative influence of global climate change on oblates, which are responsible of massive peaks of biomass and carbon export in spring. We suggest that including prolates and dinoflagellates in models may improve our understanding of the influence of global climate change on the biological carbon cycle in the oceans.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".