Examining the Hydro-Climatic Drivers of Lagoon Breaching and Healing in a Deltaic Barrier
Bibliographic record
Abstract
As sea-level rise (SLR) and human-made interventions affect coastal currents and sediment transport, coastal barriers have become more vulnerable to the effect of storms, hurricanes, and climate variability. The response of each barrier is unique and depends on wave regime, coastline orientation, weather conditions, bathymetry, and type of human-made interventions, among other factors. In the Magdalena River deltaic barrier, located on the Colombian Caribbean coast, coastal erosion has caused the loss of hundreds of square kilometers of critical ecosystems, such as wetlands and lagoons, since the 1960s. This work aims to analyze the short-term drivers behind the observed loss of lagoons, particularly the drivers of lagoon breaching events and subsequent healing along the deltaic barrier. Lagoon breaching events and healings were detected using satellite imagery, and the timing of these events was related to prior local atmospheric, oceanographic, and fluvial conditions. The findings reveal that the dynamics of the lagoons are driven by extreme river discharges and energetic wave conditions associated with storms or hurricanes. Healing is driven by the sediment supplied by littoral currents and average waves punctuated by energetic events. The cumulative effect of breaching and healing has resulted in a deltaic barrier that has rolled over the lagoons, reducing their size over time. These findings provide a better understanding of the forces of coastal retreat and will help inform future management decisions of the coastal zone.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".