Prediction of delayed cerebral ischemia after cerebral aneurysm rupture using explainable machine learning approach
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BackgroundAneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage results in significant mortality and disability, which is worsened by the development of delayed cerebral ischemia. Tests to identify patients with delayed cerebral ischemia prospectively are of high interest.ObjectiveWe created a machine learning system based on clinical variables to predict delayed cerebral ischemia in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage patients. We also determined which variables have the most impact on delayed cerebral ischemia prediction using SHapley Additive exPlanations method.Methods500 aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage patients were identified and 369 met inclusion criteria: 70 patients developed delayed cerebral ischemia (delayed cerebral ischemia+) and 299 did not (delayed cerebral ischemia-). The algorithm was trained based upon age, sex, hypertension (HTN), diabetes, hyperlipidemia, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, smoking history, family history of aneurysm, Fisher Grade, Hunt and Hess score, and external ventricular drain placement. Random Forest was selected for this project, and prediction outcome of the algorithm was delayed cerebral ischemia+. SHapley Additive exPlanations was used to visualize each feature's contribution to the model prediction.ResultsThe Random Forest machine learning algorithm predicted delayed cerebral ischemia: accuracy 80.65% (95% CI: 72.62-88.68), area under the curve 0.780 (95% CI: 0.696-0.864), sensitivity 12.5% (95% CI: -3.7 to 28.7), specificity 94.81% (95% CI: 89.85-99.77), PPV 33.3% (95% CI: -4.39 to 71.05), and NPV 84.1% (95% CI: 76.38-91.82). SHapley Additive exPlanations value demonstrated Age, external ventricular drain placement, Fisher Grade, and Hunt and Hess score, and HTN had the highest predictive values for delayed cerebral ischemia. Lower age, absence of hypertension, higher Hunt and Hess score, higher Fisher Grade, and external ventricular drain placement increased risk of delayed cerebral ischemia.ConclusionMachine learning models based upon clinical variables predict delayed cerebral ischemia with high specificity and good accuracy.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it