The 2010-15 anomaly in the Southern Hemisphere baseline CO2
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The CO2 measured in baseline air collected over three decades from six Southern Hemisphere sites spanning 70° of latitude uniformly indicate an 11 PgC anomaly between 2010 and 2015. The anomaly, in annually averaged residuals from the smooth increase due to the cumulative total of long lived anthropogenic emissions, exceeds uptake expected from modelled sinks. It also departs from long term lagged correlations with ENSO indices. Air-surface exchange is of insufficient magnitude, abruptness, and persistence to explain the anomaly. Overestimation in the 3–4 PgC year− 1 interhemispheric flux of fossil emissions is implied. The anomaly trails the GFC, whose impact is complicated by anomalous within-NH and interhemispheric mixing. Resumption of atmospheric behaviour more consistent with emission estimates coincides with improved national emissions accounting at COP21. There is relevance to top-down air-surface flux estimates, for example, recent conflicting transport model estimates of Chinese emission trends or El Niño induced emissions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".