Before-and-after evidence that urbanization contributes to the decline of a migratory songbird
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Although urbanization is widely believed to be an increasing threat to biodiversity, drawing strong inferences about its effects on wildlife has been challenging because the state of a population prior to development is rarely known. The Wood Thrush (<em>Hylocichla mustelina</em>) is a steeply declining migratory songbird that breeds in North American temperate deciduous forests and winters in Central America. From 1987 to 2001, Wood Thrush abundance and daily nest survival were measured in 72 forest fragments across Waterloo Region, Ontario, Canada. Some of these fragments have since been surrounded by urbanization while others have remained rural. In 2020 and 2021, we reassessed Wood Thrush abundance and daily nest survival in these same fragments by replicating point count and nest monitoring protocols. Our results suggest that Wood Thrush have declined most steeply in fragments with development built within 1 km during the intervening 20-year period (-79% vs. only -57% elsewhere), although experiencing no decline in daily nest survival over the same time period, regardless of development. Our findings provide rare before-and-after evidence that urbanization near breeding habitat is contributing to a pronounced localized decline of a migratory songbird, likely by mechanisms unrelated to nest survival.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".