The impact of JUUL market entry on cigarette sales: evidence from a major chain retailer in Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), such as the JUUL system, are nicotine products for adults who currently smoke cigarettes but are looking for an alternative to combustible cigarettes. Sales of ENDS products were legislatively acknowledged and authorized federally in Canada with the Royal Assent of the Tobacco and Vaping Products Act in 2018. METHODS: With the unique dataset from a major chain retailer in Canada, we evaluated the impacts of JUUL market entry on cigarette sales across Canada from January 2017 to August 2019 using two-way fixed effects panel regression models by leveraging on the entry time variation at the city level. We conducted various robustness checks and a permutation test to validate our results. RESULTS: Our estimates suggested that JUUL market entry was, on average, significantly correlated with a 1.65% per-month decrease in cigarette sales during the initial months, and with a potentially larger impact on urban areas. Our results were robust across various specifications and tests. These findings implied that JUUL and combustible cigarettes act as economic substitutes during the study time period in Canada. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggested that local availability of ENDS products, such as JUUL, has the potential to reduce local cigarette consumption.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".