Exploring flexible polynomial regression as a method to align routine clinical outcomes with daily data capture through remote technologies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Clinical outcomes are normally captured less frequently than data from remote technologies, leaving a disparity in volumes of data from these different sources. To align these data, flexible polynomial regression was investigated to estimate personalised trends for a continuous outcome over time. Methods Using electronic health records, flexible polynomial regression models inclusive of a 1st up to a 4th order were calculated to predict forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV 1 ) over time in children with cystic fibrosis. The model with the lowest AIC for each individual was selected as the best fit. The optimal parameters for using flexible polynomials were investigated by comparing the measured FEV 1 values to the values given by the individualised polynomial. Results There were 8,549 FEV 1 measurements from 267 individuals. For individuals with > 15 measurements (n = 178), the polynomial predictions worked well; however, with < 15 measurements (n = 89), the polynomial models were conditional on the number of measurements and time between measurements. The method was validated using BMI in the same population of children. Conclusion Flexible polynomials can be used to extrapolate clinical outcome measures at frequent time intervals to align with daily data captured through remote technologies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.062 | 0.120 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".