Pacific Barrow’s Goldeneye refine migratory phenology in response to overwintering temperatures and annual snowmelt
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Timing of seasonal bird migrations is broadly determined by internal biological clocks, which are synchronized by photoperiod, but individuals often refine their migratory timing decisions in response to external factors. Using 11 years of satellite telemetry data, we show that Pacific Barrow’s Goldeneye (Bucephala islandica) at higher latitudes initiated spring and molt migrations later and fall migration earlier than individuals at lower latitudes. We further show that individuals refined migratory timing in response to interannual variation in environmental conditions. Individual Barrow’s Goldeneye initiated spring migration earlier in years with warmer springs at their overwintering locations and concluded spring migration earlier in years with earlier annual snowmelt on their breeding grounds. Because individuals respond to conditions both where they initiate and where they conclude spring migration, our results suggest that Barrow’s Goldeneye update their migratory decisions en route. For all 3 migrations in their annual cycle, birds delayed initiating migration if they had been captured and tagged prior to that migration. Birds that initiated migration late for their latitude were less likely to include a stopover and completed that migration faster, partially compensating for delayed departures. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that Barrow’s Goldeneye uses a combination of endogenous cues and environmental cues in migratory decision making. Sensitivity to environmental cues suggests that Barrow’s Goldeneye may have behavioral plasticity that is adaptive when faced with ongoing climate change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".