Transfer Learning for Hypersonic Vehicle Trajectory Prediction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) introduce challenges in terms of predicting their future flight behavior because they fly at high speeds and maneuver during flight. Furthermore, there are limited examples of actual HGV flights, which impedes the development of prediction methods that model HGV trajectories. In this paper, we investigate transfer learning for HGV trajectory prediction to evaluate how stochastic grammars trained on a limited number of HGV trajectories perform on new, unseen HGV trajectories. Our analysis includes two datasets containing HGV trajectories that exhibit different maneuvers. One dataset contains trajectories that exhibit vertical maneuvers, which are behaviors related to changes in altitude. The second dataset exhibits both horizontal and vertical maneuvers, where horizontal maneuvers refer to changes in crossrange and downrange. The vertical dataset is also significantly smaller than the second dataset (i.e., the dataset that exhibits horizontal and vertical maneuvers). We develop a prediction method using the smaller, less complicated dataset to model HGV trajectories. Specifically, we use an unsupervised machine learning method based on stochastic grammars. Then, we demonstrate that the learned model can be used to predict HGV behavior and engageability for trajectories from the larger, more complicated dataset. Our results show that transfer learning improves prediction performance (even on unseen trajectory maneuvers) and can be used in limited data scenarios.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".