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Record W4376639745 · doi:10.1136/bmjebm-2022-112215

Catalogue of bias: novelty bias

2023· article· en· W4376639745 on OpenAlex
Yan Luo, Carl Heneghan, Nav Persaud

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueBMJ evidence-based medicine · 2023
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldComputer Science
TopicComputational Drug Discovery Methods
Canadian institutionsUniversity of TorontoSt. Michael's Hospital
Fundersnot available
KeywordsNoveltyComputer sciencePsychologySocial psychology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Novelty bias is the tendency for an intervention to appear better when it is new. It is also known as the ‘novel agent effects’ or ‘fading of reported effectiveness’.1 2 The mechanisms by which interventions appear better when new or new for a specific purpose are unknown and may involve other forms of bias having a more significant effect when an intervention is new. Novelty bias can arise when the internal or external validity is compromised. Regarding internal validity, performance bias3 and detection bias4 may cause novelty bias because unblinded researchers may be particularly enthusiastic about new treatments, leading to differences in the care received by the intervention and control groups apart from the intended treatment or differences in the outcome assessment. Selective outcome reporting bias can also be a critical reason for novelty bias.5 6 Positive result bias7 (eg, positive results of a treatment are selectively reported when it is new and less selectively reported later), confirmation bias8 (eg, only the evidence supporting the new treatments is gathered while the others are disregarded) and hot stuff bias9 (eg, researchers may be keen to confirm the positive findings regarding a new and hot topic rather than falsifying them) are examples of selective reporting bias. They can lead to overinterpretation of the point estimates …\n

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Direct model labels (unvalidated)

Per-model category and study-design labels from the labeling rounds. They are machine output, unvalidated, and the disagreement between models ships as data. No study design here is MEDLINE-validated yet.

Model armCategoriesStudy designConfidence
gemmaMetaresearch
Domain: Methods · Genre: Methods
About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no
Theoretical or conceptuallow
gptMetaresearch
Domain: Methods · Genre: Methods
About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no
Not applicablemedium
models splitAgreement compares identical category sets and study designs across arms.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.006
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.011
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.833
Threshold uncertainty score0.997

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0060.011
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.003
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.360
GPT teacher head0.430
Teacher spread0.070 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it