UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, May 2023
Bibliographic record
Abstract
International Tourism – 2023 starts on a strong note with the Middle East recovering 2019 levels in the first quarter International tourist arrivals reached 80% of pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2023 (-20% compared to the same quarter of 2019) boosted by strong results in Europe and the Middle East, compared to a 66% recovery level for the year 2022 overall. International tourism grew 86% in Q1 2023 compared to the same period last year, showing continued strength at the start of the year. An estimated 235 million tourists travelled internationally in the first three months, more than double those in the same period of 2022. The Middle East saw the strongest performance (+15%) and is the first world region to recover pre-pandemic numbers in a full quarter. Europe reached 90% of pre-pandemic levels in Q1 2023, supported by robust intra-regional demand. Africa and the Americas reached about 85% of 2019 levels in the first three months of 2023, while arrivals in Asia and the Pacific climbed to 54% of pre-pandemic levels. By subregion, Southern Mediterranean Europe (+1%) and North Africa (+4%) both recovered 2019 numbers. International tourism receipts recovered the USD 1 trillion mark in 2022, growing 50% in real terms compared to 2021, and reaching 64% of pre-pandemic levels. Strong results are expected in the coming Northern Hemisphere summer season backed by robust pent-up demand, the sustained recovery of air connectivity, and the recent reopening of China and other major Asian markets and destinations. The UNWTO Panel of Experts survey indicates that almost 70% of experts expect better performance in May-August 2023. Yet, most continue to believe international tourism will not return to 2019 levels until 2024 or later. In response to the challenging economic environment, tourists are expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home this year.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.016 | 0.006 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".