Comparative evaluation of the clinical presentation and epidemiology of the 2022 and previous Mpox outbreaks: a rapid review and meta-analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background In 2022, there were outbreaks of Mpox where the disease is not endemic. We summarised and compared the findings from published observational studies on the clinical presentation and epidemiology of the 2022 and previous outbreaks of Mpox.Methods We registered a review protocol with the Open Science Framework (osf.io/j3kb7). We searched MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL, CINAHL and Scopus databases, and relevant websites up to August 30, 2022. Retrieved literature citations were screened for eligibility, and summary clinical presentation and epidemiological data from the included studies were pooled, when possible, using an inverse variance, random-effects model.Results Seventy-nine studies met the eligibility. Irrespective of outbreak, fever, headache, myalgia, lymphadenopathy, pleomorphic skin lesions, oral lesions, and sore throat were potentially highly relevant Mpox manifestations, while conjunctivitis, cough, and possibly reactivation of varicella zoster virus may be part of the clinical presentation. The mean incubation period for the 2022 outbreaks was 7.4 d (6.4–8.4 d, I2 64.2%; 4 studies: 270 cases) and for previous outbreaks, 12.9 d (10.4–15.5 d; one study: 31 cases), p < .001. None of the male cases from previous outbreaks was reported to have sex with men (MSM) whereas almost all reported male cases from the 2022 outbreak were MSM. Concomitant sexually transmitted infections and perianal lesions were reported only among male cases from the 2022 outbreak, with the cases mostly presenting with genital lesions.Conclusions The 2022 Mpox outbreaks appear to be mostly among MSM and have a lower incubation period compared with previous outbreaks.Key messages79 studies met the review’s inclusion criteria.The 2022 Mpox outbreaks appear to have shorter incubation period compared with previous outbreaks.Established clinical presentation of Mpox includes fever, headache, myalgia, lymphadenopathy, pleomorphic skin lesions, oral lesions, and sore throat.Almost all reported cases from the 2022 Mpox outbreaks were men who had sex with men (MSM).Concomitant sexually transmitted infections and perianal lesions were only reported among cases from the 2022 Mpox outbreaks.A significantly higher proportion of Mpox cases from the 2022 outbreaks had genital lesions compared with cases from previous outbreaks.The 2022 Mpox outbreaks appear to be mostly among MSM.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.025 | 0.050 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.020 | 0.044 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.018 | 0.016 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".