Climate change, species thermal emergence, and conservation design: a case study in the Canadian Northwest Atlantic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are conservation tools that promote biodiversity by regulating human impacts. However, because MPAs are fixed in space and, by design, difficult to change, climate change may challenge their long-term effectiveness. It is therefore imperative to consider anticipated ecological changes in their design. We predict the time of emergence (ToE: year when temperatures will exceed a species’ tolerance) of 30 fish and invertebrate species in the Scotian Shelf-Bay of Fundy draft network of conservation areas based on climate projections under two contrasting emission scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). We demonstrate a strong Southwest-to-Northeast gradient of change under both scenarios. Cold water-associated species had earlier ToEs, particularly in southwesterly areas. Under low emissions, 20.0% of habitat and 12.6% of species emerged from the network as a whole by 2100. Under high emissions, 51% of habitat and 42% of species emerged. These impacts are expected within the next 30–50 years in some southwestern areas. The magnitude and velocity of change will be tempered by reduced emissions. Our identification of high- and low-risk areas for species of direct and indirect conservation interest can support decisions regarding site and network design (and designation scheduling), promoting climate resilience.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".