Climate-change and mass mortality events in overwintering monarch butterflies Eventos de mortandad masiva y cambio climático en poblaciones invernales de la mariposa monarca
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) have a unique yearly life cycle, in which successive generations breed and move northward from the southern USA in spring to the northern US and southern Canada by late summer; they overwinter in extremely restricted areas in central Mexico and along the California coast. Mexican overwintering populations have experienced significant mortality events recently, which have been hypothesized as increasing in frequency owing to climate change. Here, we test the hypothesis of climate-change causation of these mortality events, at least in part, finding significant local weather trends toward conditions lethal for monarch survival. We use ecological niche estimates and future climate projections to estimate future overwintering distributions; results anticipate dramatic reductions in suitability of present overwintering areas, and serious implications for local human economies.<br>La mariposa monarca (Danaus plexippus) tiene un ciclo de vida singular, en el cual generaciones sucesivas se reproducen y migran hacia el norte, empezando en el sur de los Estados Unidos en la primavera y terminando en el norte de los Estados Unidos y sur del Canadá en verano. Pasan el invierno en unas pocas zonas muy restringidas del centro de México y la costa del estado de California. En tiempos recientes, las poblaciones en México han experimentado mortalidades significativas y se ha hipotetizado que la causa puede ser el cambio climático. En este artículo probamos, al menos en parte, la hipótesis del cambio climático como causa de estos eventos de mortalidad y encontramos un desplazamiento significativo del clima local hacia condiciones que son letales para la mariposa. Utilizamos estimados de nicho ecológico y proyecciones de climas futuros para definir futuras áreas de invernación. Nuestros resultados anticipan una reducción dramática en la calidad de estas áreas actuales e implicaciones serias para las economías locales.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".