Predictors of 6-year event-free survival in Alagille syndrome patients treated with maralixibat, an ileal bile acid transporter inhibitor
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Refractory pruritus and other complications of cholestasis are indications for liver transplantation (LT) in patients with Alagille syndrome (ALGS). We evaluated predictors of event-free survival and transplant-free survival in patients with ALGS treated with maralixibat (MRX), an ileal bile acid transporter inhibitor. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We assessed patients with ALGS from 3 clinical trials of MRX with up to 6 years of follow-up. Event-free survival was defined as the absence of LT, surgical biliary diversion, hepatic decompensation, or death; transplant-free survival was the absence of LT or death. Forty-three potential predictors were evaluated, including age, pruritus (ItchRO[Obs] 0-4 scale), biochemistries, platelets, and serum bile acids. Harrell's concordance statistic assessed goodness-of-fit, and then, Cox proportional hazard models confirmed the statistical significance of the predictors identified. A further analysis was performed to identify cutoffs using a grid search. Seventy-six individuals met the criteria of receiving MRX for ≥48 weeks with laboratory values available at week 48 (W48). The median duration of MRX was 4.7 years (IQR: 1.6-5.8); 16 had events (10 LT, 3 decompensation, 2 death, and 1 surgical biliary diversion). The 6-year event-free survival improved with a clinically meaningful >1-point ItchRO(Obs) reduction from baseline to W48 (88% vs. 57%; p = 0.005), W48 bilirubin < 6.5 mg/dL (90% vs. 43%; p < 0.0001), and W48 serum bile acid < 200 µmol/L (85% vs. 49%; p = 0.001). These parameters were also predictive of 6-year transplant-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: Improvement in pruritus by 48 weeks, and lower W48 bilirubin and serum bile acid levels were associated with fewer events. These data may help identify potential markers of disease progression for ALGS patients treated with MRX.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".