Abstract 11574: Relationship Between Baseline Electrocardiographic Parameters and Outcomes in Patients With High-Risk Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction: Insights From the Vericiguat Global Study in Patients With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (VICTORIA) Trial
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Patients with chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and recent decompensation are at high risk of cardiovascular (CV) events including mortality; risk stratification remains challenging. To further assess risk in this population, we characterized their baseline 12-lead ECGs and their prognostic value in 4880 patients (24% female) from the VICTORIA study. Methods: Baseline ECG parameters were interpreted in a core laboratory blinded to centrally adjudicated clinical outcomes. There were 1799 primary composite events (time to first HF hospitalization (HFH) or CV death) and 1005 total all-cause deaths (21% sudden). The MAGGIC-adjusted association between baseline ECG parameters and outcomes are presented as hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: Incidence rates of baseline ECG parameters and their association with all-cause death and the primary composite outcome are shown below. The median MAGGIC score was 24 (19, 28) points. Higher heart rate, greater QRS duration, and prolonged QTc were significantly associated with the primary composite and all-cause death ( Table ), as well as for CV death ([HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.07; p<0.001] [HR 1.02, 1.00-1.04; p=0.015] [HR 1.16, 1.00-1.34; p=0.049]), respectively. Sex-based interactions were evident for contiguous Q waves on all-cause death (male: HR 0.98, 0.82-1.17; female: HR 1.56, 1.15-2.12; interaction p=0.010) and CV death (male: HR 1.03, 0.85-1.25; female: HR 1.66, 1.17-2.34; interaction p=0.019). Additionally, contiguous Q-waves were associated with sudden death (HR 1.45, 1.05-2.00; p=0.022) and appeared to double the risk in females (male: HR 1.25, 0.87-1.79; female: HR 2.50, 1.23-5.06; interaction p= 0.087). Conclusion: Routine ECG parameters are associated with worse outcomes in high risk HFrEF patients—particularly in females with contiguous Q waves.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".