Marine bird mass mortality events as an indicator of the impacts of ocean warming
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The frequency and severity of marine heatwaves (MHWs), an emergent property of global warming, has led to large-scale disruptions to marine ecosystems. As upper trophic species, marine birds reflect shifts in trophic structure and stability; therefore, a sharp increase in marine bird mortality is a clear signal of ecosystem impact. In this study, we analyzed 29 yr (1993-2021) of beached bird monitoring data (~90000 surveys) to identify marine bird mortality events throughout the Northeast Pacific and Alaska, USA, and examined linkages to ocean-climate variability. Mortality events were documented throughout the study period, but massive events (>500 km in extent, >10 carcasses km -1 ) occurred infrequently (n = 5), with an unprecedented sequence from 2014-2019. Event characteristics, including encounter rate (carcasses km -1 ), duration, and spatial extent, were positively related to prior-year averaged sea surface temperature anomaly, with event magnitude (product of encounter rate, extent, and duration) displaying a step-like transition, increasing 5-fold between +0°C and +1°C above baseline (1981-2010) temperatures. Mortality events occurred more frequently following MHWs, and a common sequence of mortality events (at 1-6 and 10-16 mo after heatwave onset) was observed in the California Current large marine ecosystem following 3 prolonged MHW events. Following the second wave of mortality at 10-16 mo after MHW onset, a consistent 16 mo period of depressed carcass encounter rates ensued. Given continued global warming, our results point to more frequent large-scale mortality events and the potential for a new lower carrying capacity for marine birds in the Northeast Pacific.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".