Development of an online calculator for the prediction of seizure freedom following pediatric hemispherectomy using the Hemispherectomy Outcome Prediction Scale (HOPS)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Although hemispheric surgeries are among the most effective procedures for drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) in the pediatric population, there is a large variability in seizure outcomes at the group level. A recently developed HOPS score provides individualized estimation of likelihood of seizure freedom to complement clinical judgement. The objective of this study was to develop a freely accessible online calculator that accurately predicts the probability of seizure freedom for any patient at 1-, 2-, and 5-years post-hemispherectomy. METHODS: Retrospective data of all pediatric patients with DRE and seizure outcome data from the original Hemispherectomy Outcome Prediction Scale (HOPS) study were included. The primary outcome of interest was time-to-seizure recurrence. A multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression model was developed to predict the likelihood of post-hemispheric surgery seizure freedom at three time points (1-, 2- and 5- years) based on a combination of variables identified by clinical judgment and inferential statistics predictive of the primary outcome. The final model from this study was encoded in a publicly accessible online calculator on the International Network for Epilepsy Surgery and Treatment (iNEST) website (https://hops-calculator.com/). RESULTS: The selected variables for inclusion in the final model included the five original HOPS variables (age at seizure onset, etiologic substrate, seizure semiology, prior non-hemispheric resective surgery, and contralateral fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography [FDG-PET] hypometabolism) and three additional variables (age at surgery, history of infantile spasms, and magnetic resonance imaging [MRI] lesion). Predictors of shorter time-to-seizure recurrence included younger age at seizure onset, prior resective surgery, generalized seizure semiology, FDG-PET hypometabolism contralateral to the side of surgery, contralateral MRI lesion, non-lesional MRI, non-stroke etiologies, and a history of infantile spasms. The area under the curve (AUC) of the final model was 73.0%. SIGNIFICANCE: Online calculators are useful, cost-free tools that can assist physicians in risk estimation and inform joint decision-making processes with patients and families, potentially leading to greater satisfaction. Although the HOPS data was validated in the original analysis, the authors encourage external validation of this new calculator.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.024 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".