Simulating Realistic Continuous Glucose Monitor Time Series By Data Augmentation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Simulated data are a powerful tool for research, enabling benchmarking of blood glucose (BG) forecasting and control algorithms. However, expert created models provide an unrealistic view of real-world performance, as they lack the features that make real data challenging, while black-box approaches such as generative adversarial networks do not enable systematic tests to diagnose model performance. METHODS: To address this, we propose a method that learns missingness and error properties of continuous glucose monitor (CGM) data collected from people with type 1 diabetes (OpenAPS, OhioT1DM, RCT, and Racial-Disparity), and then augments simulated BG data with these properties. On the task of BG forecasting, we test how well our method brings performance closer to that of real CGM data compared with current simulation practices for missing data (random dropout) and error (Gaussian noise, CGM error model). RESULTS: Our methods had the smallest performance difference versus real data compared with random dropout and Gaussian noise when individually testing the effects of missing data and error on simulated BG in most cases. When combined, our approach was significantly better than Gaussian noise and random dropout for all data sets except OhioT1DM. Our error model significantly improved results on diverse data sets. CONCLUSIONS: We find a significant gap between BG forecasting performance on simulated and real data, and our method can be used to close this gap. This will enable researchers to rigorously test algorithms and provide realistic estimates of real-world performance without overfitting to real data or at the expense of data collection.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".