A curated census of pathogenic and likely pathogenic UTR variants and evaluation of deep learning models for variant effect prediction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Variants in 5’ and 3’ untranslated regions (UTR) contribute to rare disease. While predictive algorithms to assist in classifying pathogenicity can potentially be highly valuable, the utility of these tools is often unclear, as it depends on carefully selected training and validation conditions. To address this, we developed a high-confidence set of pathogenic (P) and likely pathogenic (LP) variants and assessed deep learning (DL) models for predicting their molecular effect. 3’ and 5’ UTR variants documented as P or LP (P/LP) were obtained from ClinVar and refined by reviewing the annotated variant effect and reassessing evidence of pathogenicity following published guidelines. Prediction scores from sequence-based DL models were compared between three groups: P/LP variants acting though the mechanism for which the model was designed (model-matched), those operating through other mechanisms (model-mismatched), and putative benign variants. PhyloP was used to compare conservation scores between P/LP and putative benign variants. 295 3’ and 188 5’ UTR variants were obtained from ClinVar, of which 26 3’ and 68 5’ UTR variants were classified as P/LP. Predictions by DL models achieved statistically-significant differences when comparing model-matched P/LP variants to both putative benign variants and model-mismatched P/LP variants, as well as when comparing all P/LP variants to putative benign variants. PhyloP conservation scores were significantly higher among P/LP compared to putative benign variants for both the 3’ and 5’ UTR. In conclusion, we present a high-confidence set of P/LP 3’ and 5’ UTR variants spanning a range of mechanisms and supported by detailed pathogenicity and molecular mechanism evidence curation. Predictions from DL models further substantiate these classifications. These datasets will support further development and validation of DL algorithms designed to predict the functional impact of variants that may be implicated in rare disease.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".