Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 1 in Canada: systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: The objective of this study was to characterize herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) epidemiology in Canada. Methods: HSV-1 publications as recent as December 6, 2021 were systematically reviewed, synthesized, and reported following PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted. Results: HSV-1 measures were extracted from 22 studies and included 32 overall seroprevalence measures (79 stratified), 2 overall proportions of HSV-1 detection in clinically diagnosed genital ulcer disease (2 stratified), and 8 overall proportions of HSV-1 detection in laboratory-confirmed genital herpes (27 stratified). Pooled mean seroprevalence was 19.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 12.6-26.4%] among healthy children and 51.4% (95% CI: 47.3-55.5%) among healthy adults. Pooled mean seroprevalence among healthy general populations increased with age, with the lowest being 35.7% (95% CI: 29.1-42.6%) among individuals <20 years of age, and the highest being 70.0% (95% CI: 54.8-83.2) among individuals ≥40 years. Seroprevalence increased by 1.02-fold (95% CI: 1.01-1.04) per year. Pooled mean proportion of HSV-1 detection in genital ulcer disease was 30.8% (95% CI: 12.6-52.8%). Pooled mean proportion of HSV-1 detection in genital herpes was 37.4% (95% CI: 29.5-45.6%) and was highest in women and in young persons. Proportion of HSV-1 detection in genital herpes increased by 1.04-fold (95% CI: 1.00-1.08) per year. Conclusions: HSV-1 epidemiology in Canada appears to be shifting toward less oral acquisition in childhood and more genital acquisition in adulthood, particularly among youth. Both HSV-1 seroprevalence and proportion of HSV-1 detection in genital herpes are increasing with time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.026 | 0.072 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.016 | 0.041 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.009 | 0.013 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".