Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 1 in Canada: systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: The objective of this study was to characterize herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) epidemiology in Canada. Methods: HSV-1 publications as recent as December 6, 2021 were systematically reviewed, synthesized, and reported following PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted. Results: HSV-1 measures were extracted from 22 studies and included 32 overall seroprevalence measures (79 stratified), 2 overall proportions of HSV-1 detection in clinically diagnosed genital ulcer disease (2 stratified), and 8 overall proportions of HSV-1 detection in laboratory-confirmed genital herpes (27 stratified). Pooled mean seroprevalence was 19.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 12.6-26.4%] among healthy children and 51.4% (95% CI: 47.3-55.5%) among healthy adults. Pooled mean seroprevalence among healthy general populations increased with age, with the lowest being 35.7% (95% CI: 29.1-42.6%) among individuals <20 years of age, and the highest being 70.0% (95% CI: 54.8-83.2) among individuals ≥40 years. Seroprevalence increased by 1.02-fold (95% CI: 1.01-1.04) per year. Pooled mean proportion of HSV-1 detection in genital ulcer disease was 30.8% (95% CI: 12.6-52.8%). Pooled mean proportion of HSV-1 detection in genital herpes was 37.4% (95% CI: 29.5-45.6%) and was highest in women and in young persons. Proportion of HSV-1 detection in genital herpes increased by 1.04-fold (95% CI: 1.00-1.08) per year. Conclusions: HSV-1 epidemiology in Canada appears to be shifting toward less oral acquisition in childhood and more genital acquisition in adulthood, particularly among youth. Both HSV-1 seroprevalence and proportion of HSV-1 detection in genital herpes are increasing with time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.019 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".