Childbirth delivery mode and the risk of multiple sclerosis: a prospective population-based study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Caesarean section (CS) may affect the risk of developing multiple sclerosis (MS) in the offspring, possibly through changes in gut microbiota composition, but findings from previous studies are inconsistent. We investigated whether birth by CS was associated with the risk of adult-onset MS. METHODS: We conducted a prospective population-based cohort study, including all individuals born in Norway between 1967 and 2003, using the Medical Birth Registry of Norway linked with the Norwegian Multiple Sclerosis Registry and Biobank. The follow-up was until 2021. We used multivariable Cox models to estimate HRs for MS risk with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Among 2 046 637 individuals in the cohort, 4954 MS cases were identified. Being born by CS was associated with a modest increase in MS risk (HR=1.18, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.32). In the sibling-matched analysis, we found no association between CS and MS risk. We found an interaction between CS and gestational age (p=0.03): CS was associated with an increased risk of MS in individuals born preterm (HR=1.62, 95% CI 1.18 to 2.24), whereas there was no association in individuals born at term (HR=1.13, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.27). In a subgroup analysis of individuals born in 1988 and onwards, emergency CS was related to an elevated MS risk (HR=1.40, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.83), whereas planned CS was not (HR: 1.10, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.58). CONCLUSIONS: CS was associated with a modestly higher risk of developing MS. However, the stronger associations seen in subgroups who likely experienced a more complicated pregnancy/delivery may point to confounding underlying these associations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Direct model labels (unvalidated)
Per-model category and study-design labels from the labeling rounds. They are machine output, unvalidated, and the disagreement between models ships as data. No study design here is MEDLINE-validated yet.
| Model arm | Categories | Study design | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| gemma | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Empirical About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no | Observational | low |
| gpt | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Empirical About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no | Observational | high |
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedLabeled directly by 2 models reading the full record.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".