The Relation Between Decadal Droughts and Eruptions of Steamboat Geyser in Yellowstone National Park, USA
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In the past century, most eruptions of Steamboat Geyser in Yellowstone National Park's Norris Geyser Basin were mainly clustered in three episodes: 1961–1969, 1982–1984, and ongoing since 2018. These eruptive episodes resulted in extensive disturbance to surrounding trees. To characterize tree response over time as an indicator of geyser activity adjustments to climate variability, aerial and ground images were analyzed to document changes in tree coverage around the geyser since 1954. Radiocarbon dating of silicified tree remnants from within 14 m of the geyser vent was used to examine geyser response to possible variations in decadal to centennial precipitation patterns. We searched for atypical or absent growth rings in cores from live trees in years associated with large geyser eruptions. Photographs indicate that active eruptive phases have adversely affected trees up to 30 m from the vent, primarily in the dominant downwind direction. Radiocarbon dates indicate that the geyser formed before 1878, in contrast to the birthdate reported in historical documents. Further, the ages of the silicified trees cluster within three episodes that are temporally correlated with periods of relative drought in the Yellowstone region during the 15th–17th centuries. The discontinuous growth of trees around the geyser suggests that changes in eruptive patterns occur in response to decadal to multidecadal droughts. This inference is supported by the lack of silicified specimens with more than 20 annual rings and by the existence of atypical or missing rings in live trees during periods of extended geyser activity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".