Prediction of the occurrence of leprosy reactions based on Bayesian networks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduction: Leprosy reactions (LR) are severe episodes of intense activation of the host inflammatory response of uncertain etiology, today the leading cause of permanent nerve damage in leprosy patients. Several genetic and non-genetic risk factors for LR have been described; however, there are limited attempts to combine this information to estimate the risk of a leprosy patient developing LR. Here we present an artificial intelligence (AI)-based system that can assess LR risk using clinical, demographic, and genetic data. Methods: The study includes four datasets from different regions of Brazil, totalizing 1,450 leprosy patients followed prospectively for at least 2 years to assess the occurrence of LR. Data mining using WEKA software was performed following a two-step protocol to select the variables included in the AI system, based on Bayesian Networks, and developed using the NETICA software. Results: Analysis of the complete database resulted in a system able to estimate LR risk with 82.7% accuracy, 79.3% sensitivity, and 86.2% specificity. When using only databases for which host genetic information associated with LR was included, the performance increased to 87.7% accuracy, 85.7% sensitivity, and 89.4% specificity. Conclusion: We produced an easy-to-use, online, free-access system that identifies leprosy patients at risk of developing LR. Risk assessment of LR for individual patients may detect candidates for close monitoring, with a potentially positive impact on the prevention of permanent disabilities, the quality of life of the patients, and upon leprosy control programs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".