Graph-Based Deep Learning Model for Forecasting Chloride Concentration in Urban Streams to Protect Salt-Vulnerable Areas
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In cold-climate regions, road salt is used as a de-icer for winter road maintenance. The applied road salt melts ice and snow on roads, being washed off through storm sewer systems into nearby urban streams, harming the freshwater ecosystem. Addressing the gap in the knowledge regarding the use of deep learning approaches for urban stream water quality forecasting, the present work discusses our implementation of a “Graph Neural Network” - “Sample and Aggregate” (GNN-SAGE) model for forecasting chloride concentrations in the Credit River in Ontario, Canada. The proposed GNN-SAGE is compared to other models, including a Deep Neural Network based transformer (DNN-Transformer) and a benchmarking persistence model for 6 hours forecasting horizon. Ac-cording to the results, the GNN-SAGE model surpasses other models in providing accurate predic-tions of chloride concentrations within the assessed prediction window. Also, a SHAP analysis provides insight into the variables that influence the model’s forecasting, showing the impact of the spatiotemporal neighbouring data from the network and the seasonality variables on the model’s result. The GNN-SAGE model shows potential for use in real-time forecasting of water quality in urban streams, aiding in the development of regulatory policies to protect the vulnerable freshwater ecosystems in urban areas.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".