Temporal Trends in Evidence Supporting Therapeutic Interventions in Heart Failure and Other European Society of Cardiology Guidelines
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIMS: This study aimed to determine whether any change occurred over time in level of evidence (LoE) of therapeutic interventions supporting heart failure (HF) and other European Society of Cardiology guideline recommendations. METHODS AND RESULTS: We selected topics with at least three documents released between 2008 and April 2022. Classes of recommendations (CoR) and supporting LoE related to therapeutic interventions within each document were collected and compared over time. A total of 1822 recommendations from 18 documents on 6 topics [median number per document = 112, 867 (48%) CoR I] were included in the analysis. There was a trend towards a reduction over time in the percentage of CoR I in HF (46-36-34%), non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI; 78-58-54%), and pulmonary embolism (PE; 65-50-39%) guidelines, with a decrease in the total number of recommendations for HF only. Percentage of CoR I was stable over time around 40% for valvular heart disease (VHD) and atrial fibrillation (AF), and around 60% for cardiovascular prevention (CVP), with an increase in the total number of recommendations for VHD and CVP and a decrease for AF. Among CoR I, 319 (37%) were supported by LoE A, with a decrease over time for HF (56-46-42%), an increase for NSTEMI (29-38-48%) and AF (28-31-36%), a bimodal distribution for PE and CVP, and a lack for VHD. CONCLUSIONS: LoE supporting therapeutic recommendations in contemporary European guidelines is generally low. Physicians should be aware of these limitations, and scientific societies promote a greater understanding of their significance and drive future research directions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".