Macroeconomic determinants of the real exchange rate in Pakistan
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This research endeavors to comprehensively examine the macroeconomic determinants that influence the real exchange rate in Pakistan over an extended temporal horizon. By employing quarterly data spanning from the first quarter of 1980 to the fourth quarter of 2020, this study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology to discern both immediate and enduring determinants of the real exchange rate. The findings distinctly reveal that variables such as money supply, trade openness, workers' remittances, and productivity collectively constitute the long-term determinants of the real exchange rate in the context of Pakistan. Specifically, an augmentation in money supply and an escalated level of economic openness manifestly contribute to the reduction of the real exchange rate, whereas an inflow of remittances and heightened productivity exhibit the propensity to elevate the real exchange rate over an extended duration. This exploration underscores the imperative for proactive engagement by the nation's monetary authorities within the foreign exchange market, with the overarching objective of preserving the currency's value at a state of equilibrium and, thereby, ensuring the holistic integrity of the economy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".