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Record W4385688001 · doi:10.1017/9781316459768.004

The Forecast Factory

2023· book-chapter· en· W4385688001 on OpenAlexaff

Bibliographic record

VenueCambridge University Press eBooks · 2023
Typebook-chapter
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicScience and Climate Studies
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Toronto
Fundersnot available
KeywordsWeather predictionVon Neumann architectureMeteorologyClimatologyWeather forecastingDownscalingWork (physics)Energy balanceClimate changeEnvironmental scienceHistoryGeographyComputer scienceGeologyEngineeringPhysicsPrecipitationOceanography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Climate and weather are intimately connected. Weather describes what we experience day-to-day, while climate describes what we expect over the longer term. So it’s not surprising the models used to understand weather and climate share much of the same history. While Arrhenius’s model ignored weather altogether, focusing instead on the energy balance of the planet, modern climate models grew out of the early work on numerical weather forecasting – the basic equations for how winds and ocean currents move energy around, under the influence of the Earth’s rotation and gravity. The equations for these circulation patterns were first worked out by Arrhenius’s colleague, Vilhelm Bjerknes, in 1904, but it wasn’t until the invention of the electronic computer that John von Neumann put them to work forecasting the weather. The approach developed by von Neumann’s group now forms the core of today’s weather forecasting models .

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.006
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesScience and technology studies, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.998
Threshold uncertainty score0.909

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.006
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0030.003
Science and technology studies0.0020.001
Scholarly communication0.0070.011
Open science0.0020.002
Research integrity0.0020.003
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.3630.295

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.037
GPT teacher head0.199
Teacher spread0.163 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2023
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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