Mixture multilevel vector-autoregressive modeling.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
With the rising popularity of intensive longitudinal research, the modeling techniques for such data are increasingly focused on individual differences. Here we present mixture multilevel vector-autoregressive modeling, which extends multilevel vector-autoregressive modeling by including a mixture, to identify individuals with similar traits and dynamic processes. This exploratory model identifies mixture components, where each component refers to individuals with similarities in means (expressing traits), autoregressions, and cross-regressions (expressing dynamics), while allowing for some interindividual differences in these attributes. Key issues in modeling are discussed, where the issue of centering predictors is examined in a small simulation study. The proposed model is validated in a simulation study and used to analyze the affective data from the COGITO study. These data consist of samples for two different age groups of over 100 individuals each who were measured for about 100 days. We demonstrate the advantage of exploratory identifying mixture components by analyzing these heterogeneous samples jointly. The model identifies three distinct components, and we provide an interpretation for each component motivated by developmental psychology. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.023 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".