Machine learning-based prediction of longitudinal cognitive decline in early Parkinson’s disease using multimodal features
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Patients with Parkinson’s Disease (PD) often suffer from cognitive decline. Accurate prediction of cognitive decline is essential for early treatment of at-risk patients. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a multimodal machine learning model for the prediction of continuous cognitive decline in patients with early PD. We included 213 PD patients from the Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) database. Machine learning was used to predict change in Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) score using the difference between baseline and 4-years follow-up data as outcome. Input features were categorized into four sets: clinical test scores, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers, brain volumes, and genetic variants. All combinations of input feature sets were added to a basic model, which consisted of demographics and baseline cognition. An iterative scheme using RReliefF-based feature ranking and support vector regression in combination with tenfold cross validation was used to determine the optimal number of predictive features and to evaluate model performance for each combination of input feature sets. Our best performing model consisted of a combination of the basic model, clinical test scores and CSF-based biomarkers. This model had 12 features, which included baseline cognition, CSF phosphorylated tau, CSF total tau, CSF amyloid-beta1-42, geriatric depression scale (GDS) scores, and anxiety scores. Interestingly, many of the predictive features in our model have previously been associated with Alzheimer’s disease, showing the importance of assessing Alzheimer’s disease pathology in patients with Parkinson’s disease.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".