NYUS.2: an Automated Machine Learning Prediction Model for the Large-scale Real-time Simulation of Grapevine Freezing Tolerance in North America
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Summary Accurate and real-time monitoring of grapevine freezing tolerance is crucial for the sustainability of the grape industry in cool climate viticultural regions. However, on-site data is limited. Current prediction models underperform under diverse climate conditions, which limits the large-scale deployment of these methods. We combined grapevine freezing tolerance data from multiple regions in North America and generated a predictive model based on hourly temperature-derived features and cultivar features using AutoGluon, an automatic machine learning engine. Feature importance was quantified by AutoGluon and SHAP value. The final model was evaluated and compared with previous models for its performance under different climate conditions. The final model achieved an overall 1.36 °C root-mean-square error during model testing and outperformed two previous models using three test cultivars at all testing regions. Two feature importance quantification methods identified five shared essential features. Detailed analysis of the features indicates that the model might have adequately extracted some biological mechanisms during training. The final model, named NYUS.2, was deployed along with two previous models as an R shiny-based application in the 2022-2023 dormancy season, enabling large-scale and real-time simulation of grapevine freezing tolerance in North America for the first time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".