Estimating the Importation Risk of Mpox Virus in 2022 to Hong Kong, China
Bibliographic record
Abstract
International air travel has been recognized as a crucial factor in the cross-regional transmission of monkeypox (now known as mpox) since this disease rapidly spread across the globe in May 2022. On September 6, 2022, Hong Kong SAR (HK) reported its first imported mpox case with travel history of the United States (US), Canada, and the Philippines. In this study, we estimated the importation risk to HK from 25 international departure regions from May 1 to September 6, 2022, based on the prevalence of presymptomatic mpox cases in the study regions, and time-varying flight mobility evaluated by aggregating multiple open-access air travel datasets (e.g., OpenSky and Aviation Edge). The results of the study indicated that during the study period, the highest risk of mpox importation was from the US, at 63% (95% CI: 32% and 95%), followed by the United Kingdom (UK) and Canada, with risks of 29% (95% CI: 10% and 63%), and 17% (95% CI: 8% and 32%), respectively. The importation risk of mpox from the US and Canada was substantially higher than from the other regions, which was aligned with the travel history of the first reported case in HK. Our study introduces a simplified computational method that estimates the risk of importation mpox virus by combining air travel mobility, disease prevalence, and observed real-world scenarios to achieve accurate outcome estimates. Estimating the cross-regional importation risk of mpox would be beneficial in designing and adjusting inbound measures appropriately, which are essential for emergency public health policies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".