Variation among strains of Borrelia burgdorferi in host tissue abundance and lifetime transmission determine the population strain structure in nature
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Pathogen life history theory assumes a positive relationship between pathogen load in host tissues and pathogen transmission. Empirical evidence for this relationship is surprisingly rare due to the difficulty of measuring transmission for many pathogens. The comparative method, where a common host is experimentally infected with a set of pathogen strains, is a powerful approach for investigating the relationships between pathogen load and transmission. The validity of such experimental estimates of strain-specific transmission is greatly enhanced if they can predict the pathogen population strain structure in nature. Borrelia burgdorferi is a multi-strain, tick-borne spirochete that causes Lyme disease in North America. This study used 11 field-collected strains of B. burgdorferi, a rodent host (Mus musculus, C3H/HeJ) and its tick vector (Ixodes scapularis) to determine the relationship between pathogen load in host tissues and lifetime host-to-tick transmission (HTT). Mice were experimentally infected via tick bite with 1 of 11 strains. Lifetime HTT was measured by infesting mice with I. scapularis larval ticks on 3 separate occasions. The prevalence and abundance of the strains in the mouse tissues and the ticks were determined by qPCR. We used published databases to obtain estimates of the frequencies of these strains in wild I. scapularis tick populations. Spirochete loads in ticks and lifetime HTT varied significantly among the 11 strains of B. burgdorferi. Strains with higher spirochete loads in the host tissues were more likely to infect feeding larval ticks, which molted into nymphal ticks that had a higher probability of B. burgdorferi infection (i.e., higher HTT). Our laboratory-based estimates of lifetime HTT were predictive of the frequencies of these strains in wild I. scapularis populations. For B. burgdorferi, the strains that establish high abundance in host tissues and that have high lifetime transmission are the strains that are most common in nature.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".