Two Centuries of Relative Sea-Level Rise in Dublin, Ireland, Reconstructed by Geological Tide Gauge
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We demonstrate the utility and reproducibility of the saltmarsh foraminifera-based ‘geological tide gauge’ (GTG) approach by developing two independent records of relative sea-level (RSL) change for Dublin, Ireland. Our records, recovered from two different saltmarshes, indicate that RSL rose at a century-scale rate of 1.5 ± 0.9 mm yr–1 over the last 200 years. This compares favourably with the shorter, but more precise, mean sea level (MSL) record from the Dublin Port tide gauge, which indicates long-term (1953–2016 CE) rise at a rate of 1.1 ± 0.5 mm yr–1. When corrected for the influence of glacio-isostatic adjustment our saltmarsh-based reconstruction suggests sea levels in Dublin rose at a rate of 1.6 ± 0.9 mm yr–1 since the start of the 19th century, which is in excellent agreement with the regional value of MSL rise over the same period (1.5 ± 0.2 mm yr–1) calculated from a compilation of tide gauge records around Britain. Whilst our record has decadal-scale temporal resolution (1 sample every 8 years), we are currently unable to resolve multidecadal-scale variations in the rate of sea-level rise which are masked by the size of the vertical uncertainties (± 20 cm) associated with our reconstruction of palaeomarsh-surface elevation. We discuss the challenges of applying the GTG approach in the typically minerogenic saltmarshes of the NE Atlantic margin and outline potential solutions that would facilitate the production of Common Era RSL reconstructions in the region.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".