Delphi: A Democratic and Cost-Effective Method of Consensus Generation in Transplantation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Thrombotic Microangiopathy Banff Working Group (TMA-BWG) was formed in 2015 to survey current practices and develop minimum diagnostic criteria (MDC) for renal transplant TMA (Tx-TMA). To generate consensus among pathologists and nephrologists, the TMA BWG designed a 3-Phase study. Phase I of the study is presented here. Using the Delphi methodology, 23 panelists with >3 years of diagnostic experience with Tx-TMA pathology listed their MDC suggesting light, immunofluorescence, and electron microscopy lesions, clinical and laboratory information, and differential diagnoses. Nine rounds (R) of consensus resulted in MDC validated during two Rs using online evaluation of whole slide digital images of 37 biopsies (28 TMA, 9 non-TMA). Starting with 338 criteria the process resulted in 24 criteria and 8 differential diagnoses including 18 pathologic, 2 clinical, and 4 laboratory criteria. Results show that 3/4 of the panelists agreed on the diagnosis of 3/4 of cases. The process also allowed definition refinement for 4 light and 4 electron microscopy lesions. For the first time in Banff classification, the Delphi methodology was used to generate consensus. The study shows that Delphi is a democratic and cost-effective method allowing rapid consensus generation among numerous physicians dealing with large number of criteria in transplantation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.386 | 0.364 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.007 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.007 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.006 | 0.022 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.020 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".