Association between duration of smoking abstinence before non-small-cell lung cancer diagnosis and survival: a retrospective, pooled analysis of cohort studies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The association between duration of smoking abstinence before non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) diagnosis and subsequent survival can influence public health messaging delivered in lung-cancer screening. We aimed to assess whether the duration of smoking abstinence before diagnosis of NSCLC is associated with improved survival. METHODS: In this retrospective, pooled analysis of cohort studies, we used 26 cohorts participating in Clinical Outcomes Studies of the International Lung Cancer Consortium (COS-ILCCO) at 23 hospitals. 16 (62%) were from North America, six (23%) were from Europe, three (12%) were from Asia, and one (4%) was from South America. Patients enrolled were diagnosed between June 1, 1983, and Dec 31, 2019. Eligible patients had smoking data before NSCLC diagnosis, epidemiological data at diagnosis (obtained largely from patient questionnaires), and clinical information (retrieved from medical records). Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariable Cox models (ie, adjusted hazard ratios [aHRs]) were generated with individual, harmonised patient data from the consortium database. We estimated overall survival for all causes, measured in years from diagnosis date until the date of the last follow-up or death due to any cause and NSCLC-specific survival. FINDINGS: Of 42 087 patients with NSCLC in the COS-ILCCO database, 21 893 (52·0%) of whom were male and 20 194 (48·0%) of whom were female, we excluded 4474 (10·6%) with missing data. Compared with current smokers (15 036 [40·0%] of 37 613), patients with 1-3 years of smoking abstinence before NSCLC diagnosis (2890 [7·7%]) had an overall survival aHR of 0·92 (95% CI 0·87-0·97), patients with 3-5 years of smoking abstinence (1114 [3·0%]) had an overall survival aHR of 0·90 (0·83-0·97), and patients with more than 5 years of smoking abstinence (10 841 [28·8%]) had an overall survival aHR of 0·90 (0·87-0·93). Improved NSCLC-specific survival was observed in 4301 (44%) of 9727 patients who had quit cigarette smoking and was significant at abstinence durations of more than 5 years (aHR 0·87, 95% CI 0·81-0·93). Results were consistent across age, sex, histology, and disease-stage distributions. INTERPRETATION: In this large, pooled analysis of cohort studies across Asia, Europe, North America, and South America, overall survival was improved in patients with NSCLC whose duration of smoking abstinence before diagnosis was as short as 1 year. These findings suggest that quitting smoking can improve overall survival, even if NSCLC is diagnosed at a later lung-cancer screening visit. These findings also support the implementation of public health smoking cessation strategies at any time. FUNDING: The Alan B Brown Chair, The Posluns Family Fund, The Lusi Wong Fund, and the Princess Margaret Cancer Foundation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".