Prevalence of dementia, heart disease and stroke in community-dwelling adults in Canada, 2016–2021: opportunities for joint prevention
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: This aim of this study is to provide updated estimates on the prevalence of dementia, heart disease, and stroke in Canadian communities. Targeting all three conditions together, at the community level, may be key to disease prevention and health aging in the Canadian population. METHODS: Using nationwide health survey data, we calculated the age-standardized prevalence of self-reported dementia, heart disease and stroke in adults aged 18 years and over residing in Canadian communities from 2016 to 2021. Poisson regression models were used to detect statistically significant changes in the prevalence of all three conditions from 2016 to 2021. RESULTS: Less than 1% (~ 175,000 individuals) of adults residing in Canadian communities reported dementia, 5% (~ 1.5 million individuals) reported heart disease, and more than 1% (~ 370,000 individuals) reported stroke annually from 2016 to 2021. Overall, the age-standardized prevalence for stroke decreased minimally from 2016 to 2021 (p = 0.0004). Although the age-standardized prevalence of heart disease and dementia decreased from 2016 to 2018, subsequent increases in prevalence from 2018 to 2021 led to a lack of overall statistically significant changes from 2016 to 2021 (p = 0.10 for heart disease and p = 0.37 for dementia). CONCLUSION: Recent increases in the prevalence of dementia, heart disease and stroke in Canadian communities threaten to reverse any gains in vascular disease prevention over the past six years. Findings reveal the urgent need for intensified prevention efforts that are community-based with a focus on joint reduction in the shared risk factors contributing to all three diseases.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".