A rise in HFC-23 emissions from eastern Asia since 2015
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Trifluoromethane (CHF3, HFC-23), one of the most potent greenhouse gases among hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), is mainly emitted to the atmosphere as a by-product in the production of the ozone-depleting legacy refrigerant and chemical feedstock chlorodifluoromethane (CHClF2, HCFC-22). A recent study on atmospheric observation-based global HFC-23 emissions (top-down estimates) showed significant discrepancies over 2014–2017 between the increase in the observation-derived emissions and the 87 % emission reduction expected from capture and destruction processes of HFC-23 at HCFC-22 production facilities implemented by national phase-out plans (bottom-up emission estimates) (Stanley et al., 2020). However, the actual regions responsible for the increased emissions were not identified. Here, we estimate the regional top-down emissions of HFC-23 for eastern Asia based on in situ measurements at Gosan, South Korea, and show that the HFC-23 emissions from eastern China have increased from 5.0±0.4 Gg yr−1 in 2008 to 9.5±1.0 Gg yr−1 in 2019. The continuous rise since 2015 was contrary to the large emissions reduction reported under the Chinese hydrochlorofluorocarbons production phase-out management plan (HPPMP). The cumulative difference between top-down and bottom-up estimates for 2015–2019 in eastern China was ∼23.7±3.6 Gg, which accounts for 47±11 % of the global mismatch. Our analysis based on HCFC-22 production information suggests the HFC-23 emissions rise in eastern China is more likely associated with known HCFC-22 production facilities rather than the existence of unreported, unknown HCFC-22 production, and thus observed discrepancies between top-down and bottom-up emissions could be attributed to unsuccessful factory-level HFC-23 abatement and inaccurate quantification of emission reductions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".