Measuring the relationship between public transport share, urban sprawl and car ownership
Bibliographic record
Abstract
It is widespread acknowledged that car access and urban sprawl are related to each other and that they both influence modal choice. Nevertheless, few methods have the ability to correctly account for these correlations. In this perspective, the method proposed by BONNEL (2000) is quite unique and relevant since it allows separating the effects of each variable. Up until now, the method has been applied and validated using Lyon and related household survey data as a case study. The purpose of this study is to transpose the approach to a North-American city. This experimentation, on the one hand, allows identifying and measuring the respective influences of locations and car access on the evolution of transit in Montreal. On the other hand, it allows comparing the results from the two cities and discussing the ability of the method to clarify this issue in various urban contexts. The microdata from the large-scale origin-destination household surveys held in the Greater Montreal Area are used for this purpose. This experience confirms that the mathematical approach proposed by BONNEL is capable of distinguishing between the respective impacts of the examined variables. Hence, it also confirms that urban sprawl (with respect to trip ends) has a more important impact than the increase of car ownership on the share of transit. Now that its consistency has been demonstrated with two independent sets of data, the method can be used and developed in various ways, namely by introducing new variables (transportation supply), splitting the population into significant segments or using a more precise zoning system. Motorisation et localisation sont, dans leur acception commune, deux variables liées, de même que le sont leurs effets sur le choix modal. Rares sont les méthodes permettant toutefois de tenir compte adéquatement de ces corrélations. C'est dans cette optique que Bonnel (2000) a développé une méthodologie permettant d'isoler les effets de chacune de ces variables. À ce jour, la méthode de décomposition des effets, développée par cet auteur a été appliquée au cas de Lyon. La présente recherche propose une transposition de la méthode au contexte de la grande région de Montréal. Cette expérimentation permet d'une part d'identifier et de mesurer les effets de la localisation et de la motorisation sur le choix modal dans le contexte bien particulier montréalais et, d'autre part, de comparer les résultats obtenus avec ceux présentés en ce qui concerne l'agglomération lyonnaise. Il est alors possible de discuter de l'applicabilité de la méthode à différents contextes urbains et de valider sa pertinence. Les données provenant des quatre plus récentes enquêtes Origine-Destination tenues à Montréal sont exploitées à cette fin. Ces expérimentations confirment que la méthode permet de dissocier les effets des variables explicatives et démontrent, à l'instar de Lyon, que l'évolution des localisations a joué un rôle plus important que la motorisation dans la régression de la part de marché des transports en commun à Montréal. Les perspectives de développement de la méthode semblent nombreuses, au travers notamment de la prise en compte de l'offre de transports en commun et de voirie, de la segmentation de la clientèle ou d'une désagrégation plus importante de l'espace.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".