3D Finite-Element Numerical Failure Prediction of the E.T. Sea Stack Formation at Hopewell Rocks Provincial Park
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Sea stacks, natural pillars of rock, are borne from shoreline rock cliffs and eventually collapse by wave action and other erosional processes. While historical instances of sea stack failure have occurred within Hopewell Rocks Provincial Park in New Brunswick, comprehensive assessments of sea stack stability and predictions of future failure are in their early stages. This study aims to forecast the future failure of the E.T. sea stack formation. Photographs taken from an unmanned aerial vehicle of the stack are used to construct a digital 3D geometry model of the formation using Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry. To determine the anticipated failure threshold, 3D finite-element (FEM) numerical models of the stack were developed in RocScience RS3 software. Erosion from wave action during high tides is simulated by progressively reducing the width of the stack within the erosion zone. The erosion rate is estimated, by comparing superimposed historical and current images of the stack, to be 19.19 mm/year perpendicular and 2.26 mm/year parallel to the shoreline. Two erosion types are modelled: symmetrical isotropic and asymmetrical anisotropic. Symmetrical isotropic models imply uniform erosion, while asymmetrical anisotropic models feature two orthogonal erosion rates with directional width reductions from the end of each erosion axis. Stability of the formation in the FEM model is evaluated using maximum shear strain, total displacement, yielded elements, and major principal stress values. The symmetrical isotropic models suggest a probable failure period between 101 and 127 years after 2021. The asymmetrical anisotropic models, however, indicate that failure could occur approximately 40 years earlier. Overall, failure of the stack experiencing asymmetrical anisotropic erosion seems to occur when the supporting pillar is about to erode under the stack’s centroid. With further validation, through additional modelling, the centroid of sea stacks has the potential to be used as a guideline for predicting sea stack failure.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".