Respiratory syncytial virus epidemiology and clinical severity before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in British Columbia, Canada: a retrospective observational study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has perturbed the seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections. However, we lack data on how this impacted the severity of paediatric RSV cases. The objective of this study was to describe the clinical severity of RSV cases before, during and after pandemic measures in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Methods: Retrospective study of RSV cases from September 1st, 2017 to May 15th, 2023, with a review of RSV outcomes in children below 18 years old at BC's paediatric hospital. Temporal changes in RSV cases and hospitalisations were quantified using interrupted time series. Findings: BC experienced only 11 RSV cases (from 95,266 tests) between September 2020 and August 2021. This was followed by a resurgence of 9,529 RSV cases (219,566 tests [4.3% positive tests]) in 2021-22 and 8,215 cases (124,449 tests [6.6% positive tests]) in 2022-23, increased compared to 1,750 cases (48,664 tests [3.6% positive tests]) per corresponding yearly period in 2017-20. From September 2017 to May 2023, the median age of children with RSV at BC Children's Hospital increased from 8.7 [IQR: 2.0-26.0] to 19.6 [3.9-43.7] months per yearly period. More children were hospitalised in 2022-23 (n = 360), compared to 2017-20 (n = 168 per period) and 2021-22 (n = 172). However, we detected no increase in hospitalisations or ICU admissions in children born prematurely or with chronic cardiorespiratory conditions. Interpretation: The increased detection of symptomatic RSV cases in older children in 2021-22 and increased RSV-related hospitalisations in 2022-23 suggest a gradual increase in the pool of immunologically vulnerable children due to a prolonged lack of viral exposure. Funding: Government of Canada via its COVID-19 Immunity Task Force.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".