Shifts in breeding distribution, migration timing, and migration routes of two North American swift species
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change has resulted in changes to ecosystems and weather because of earlier onset of spring weather, later onset of fall weather, and more extreme weather patterns. Migratory birds may experience challenges adjusting to these new conditions. We utilized community science data from eBird that spanned 2009–2018 to test for changes in distribution and migration of two North American swift species. We asked if Vaux’s Swifts (<em>Chaetura vauxi</em>) and Chimney Swifts (<em>Chaetura pelagica</em>) changed their breeding distribution, migration routes, timing of migration, or speed of spring and fall migration over time. Our results show that Vaux’s Swifts shifted their breeding centroid south-east and Chimney Swifts shifted their breeding centroid west. There was also a shift in Vaux’s Swifts migration route to the east, almost proportionate in magnitude to its eastern shift in breeding range. Vaux’s Swifts displayed an advance in their start of spring migration, and Chimney Swifts exhibited a delay in their start of fall migration. These responses may be due to earlier onset of spring and a possible delay of colder temperatures associated with the onset of fall conditions. Our results indicated that both species are breeding further away from the coastline and more toward central North America, and suggest that swifts may display some phenotypic plasticity in response to changing environmental conditions. What remains unclear is if this phenotypic plasticity will be enough to prevent further population loss in the two species of swift, in the face of ongoing climate change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".