Predictive metabolites for incident myocardial infarction: a two-step meta-analysis of individual patient data from six cohorts comprising 7897 individuals from the COnsortium of METabolomics Studies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIMS: Myocardial infarction (MI) is a major cause of death and disability worldwide. Most metabolomics studies investigating metabolites predicting MI are limited by the participant number and/or the demographic diversity. We sought to identify biomarkers of incident MI in the COnsortium of METabolomics Studies. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 7897 individuals aged on average 66 years from six intercontinental cohorts with blood metabolomic profiling (n = 1428 metabolites, of which 168 were present in at least three cohorts with over 80% prevalence) and MI information (1373 cases). We performed a two-stage individual patient data meta-analysis. We first assessed the associations between circulating metabolites and incident MI for each cohort adjusting for traditional risk factors and then performed a fixed effect inverse variance meta-analysis to pull the results together. Finally, we conducted a pathway enrichment analysis to identify potential pathways linked to MI. On meta-analysis, 56 metabolites including 21 lipids and 17 amino acids were associated with incident MI after adjusting for multiple testing (false discovery rate < 0.05), and 10 were novel. The largest increased risk was observed for the carbohydrate mannitol/sorbitol {hazard ratio [HR] [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 1.40 [1.26-1.56], P < 0.001}, whereas the largest decrease in risk was found for glutamine [HR (95% CI) = 0.74 (0.67-0.82), P < 0.001]. Moreover, the identified metabolites were significantly enriched (corrected P < 0.05) in pathways previously linked with cardiovascular diseases, including aminoacyl-tRNA biosynthesis. CONCLUSIONS: In the most comprehensive metabolomic study of incident MI to date, 10 novel metabolites were associated with MI. Metabolite profiles might help to identify high-risk individuals before disease onset. Further research is needed to fully understand the mechanisms of action and elaborate pathway findings.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.011 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".