Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP) completed a first independent assessment of national tornado warning alerting (watches and warnings) in Canada covering the 2019-2021 period.The NTP undertook this study in the spirit of open data, understanding tornado warning issues unique to this country, and improving tornado warning performance.Utilizing the NTP tornado event database for verification, tornado alerts were reviewed for accuracy and timeliness.For the 250 tornadoes that occurred during the study periodand using a definition of what constitutes a warning 'hit' developed for the studythe standard 2 2 contingency table scores were Probability of Detection = 0.23, FAR = 0.78, and CSI = 0.13.Over 70% of tornadoes had no tornado warning, including 35 EF2 tornadoes.The tornado warning results were compared with US National Weather Service tornado warning scores for the US and US states along the southern Canadian border to provide context.NTP also developed a 'report card' aimed at public and media consumption that took into consideration Environment and Climate Change Canada's national performance targets for tornado warning Probability of Detection (POD) and lead time as well as tornado watch issuance.Using weighted scores for these criteria, NTP assigned a total score of 33.3/100, indicating significant room for improvement.A follow-up assessment was conducted for the 2022 tornado season in Canada following the same established procedures.It was found that the number of both tornado watches and tornado warnings had roughly doubled, resulting in a significant increase in the POD for tornado warnings to 0.35.The report card score also improved to a passing grade of 56.6/100.Further exploration of the results showed enhanced performance for tornadoes that occurred within Doppler radar range, when the parent thunderstorm involved supercell processes, and for tornadoes rated EF2 or higher.A number of recommendations are made aimed at further improvements to tornado alerting performance.RSUM [Traduit par la redaction] Le Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP) a ralis une premire valuation indpendante de l'alerte nationale de tornade (veilles et avertissements) au Canada pour la priode 2019-2021.Le NTP a entrepris cette tude dans un esprit d'ouverture des donnes, de comprhension des problmes d'alerte de tornade propres ce pays et d'amlioration du rendement des alertes de tornade.En utilisant la base de donnes des vnements de tornade du NTP pour la vrification, les alertes de tornade ont t examines pour la prcision et la rapidit de publication.Pour les 250 tornades qui se sont produites au cours de la priode d'tudeet en utilisant une dfinition de ce qui constitue une alerte russie labore pour l'tudeles notes talonnes du tableau de contingence 2 2 taient Probabilit de dtection = 0,23, FAR = 0,78, et CSI = 0,13.Plus de 70% des tornades n'ont pas fait l'objet d'une alerte de tornade, dont 35 tornades de type EF2.Les rsultats des alertes de tornade ont t compars aux rsultats des alertes de tornade du NWS pour les tats-Unis et les tats amricains situs le long de la frontire sud du Canada, afin de fournir un contexte.Le NTP a galement labor une fiche de rapport destine au public et aux mdias, qui tient compte des objectifs de rendement nationaux d'Environnement et Changement climatique Canada en matire de probabilit de dtection (PDD) et de dlai d'alerte de tornade, ainsi que d'mission de veilles de tornades.En utilisant des notes pondres pour ces critres, le NTP a attribu une note totale de 33,3/100, ce qui indique une marge d'amlioration importante.Une valuation de suivi a t ralise pour la saison des tornades 2022 au Canada en suivant les mmes procdures tablies.Il a t constat que le nombre de veilles et d'avertissements de tornades avait peu prs doubl, ce qui a entran une hausse significative de la PDD pour les avertissements de tornade, qui est pass 0,35.La note de la carte de rapport s'est galement amliore pour atteindre la note de passage de 56,6/100.Un examen plus approfondi des rsultats a montr une amlioration du rendement pour les tornades qui se sont produites dans le rayon d'action du radar Doppler, lorsque l'orage parent impliquait des processus supercellulaires, et pour les tornades classes EF2 ou plus.Un certain nombre de recommandations sont formules en vue d'amliorer encore le rendement des alertes de tornade.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".