Land Use and Land Cover Change Modulates Hydrological Flows and Water Supply to Gaborone Dam Catchment, Botswana
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Identifying the mechanism through which changes in land use and land cover (LULC) modulate hydrological flows is vital for water resource planning and management. To examine the impact of LULC change on the hydrology of the Gaborone Dam catchment within the upper Limpopo basin, where Notwane river is the major river within the catchment, three LULC maps for the years 1997, 2008, and 2017 were established based on a mosaic of Landsat 5 for 1997 and 2008 and Landsat 8 for 2017. The 10 m-resolution Version 200 ESA World Land Cover Map for 2021 is used as a ground truth to train the random forest (RF) classifier to identify land cover classes from Landsat 8 imageries of 2021 using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) Python API. The overall accuracy/kappa coefficient of the RF classifier is 0.99/0.99 for the training and 0.73/0.68 for the validation data sets, which indicate excellent and substantial agreements with the ground truth, respectively. With this confidence in the LULC classification, the impact of LULC change on the hydrological flow within the catchment was estimated by employing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and indicator of hydrological alteration (IHA). The SWAT model calibration and validation were first performed, and the ability of the model to capture the observed stream flow was found to be good. The LULC maps from Landsat images during the 1997–2017 period show a decrease in forests and shrubland in contrast to an increase in pasture land. The expansion of pasture and cropland and the reduction in forests and shrubland led to a decline in the amount of evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge. Furthermore, the LULC change also caused a reduction in low flow during dry periods and an increase in high flow during the rainy season. The findings clearly demonstrate that LULC changes can affect the water table by altering soil water recharge capacity. The study highlighted the importance of LULC for catchment water resource management through land use planning to regulate the water level in the Gaborone Dam against the impact of climate change and growing water demands by the city of Gaborone due to population growth.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".